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Read our case study trades to learn from real bitcoin traders and improve your own trading ability. Our last post got a lot of good feedback. Many of you wanted to also see unprofitable trades, which we have included to help you learn from the mistakes of others. Background There are two main trading opportunities that are covered in this article. Firstly, there was a rally following the announcement of Coinbase’s exchange on the 26th of January. Then later in February, there was another sizable rally on Valentine’s Day. Click here to read our previous post on the January price crash. These trades are not the most profitable recorded, but the trades that others can best learn from. http://i.imgur.com/w90f9BW.png 10. Buying the Rumor This trader opened two simultaneous positions. Position 1: Open: 247.64 USD Direction: Buy Close: 285.16 USD Profit: 4.20 BTC / 109.73% Position 2: Open: 247.88 USD Direction: Buy Close: 285.03 USD Profit: 4.22 BTC / 108.62% http://i.imgur.com/kunLqzh.png This trader entered two long positions on Bitfinex, with 10x leverage, before Coinbase’s exchanged was announced. After the grand reveal, their 7.7 BTC deposit produced a substantial 8.44 BTC profit the next morning. The risk / reward balance of our trader is very impressive. To begin with, they did not instantly sell for a small profit immediately after their position was opened. Instead they held out to see what the market would do. When a major spike did occur, they did not get greedy and closed their position while they were in a profit. 9. The Panic Seller Open: 254.88 USD Direction: Buy Close: 262.46 USD Profit: 1.12 BTC / 12.03% http://i.imgur.com/ARMG7OJ.png Unlike the previous trader, this speculator was not so quick to take their profits. They opened a long with 5x leverage while the rally was gaining momentum. When the trader closed the position, their 9.33 BTC deposit produced a respectable 1.12 BTC profit. The timing of their opening was impeccable, however their returns could have been considerably higher by closing earlier. It was not until the price dropped significantly that they sold in panic. If you need to improve your trade opens, consider watching the MACD to identify significant trends to follow. But remember to take your profits, like our the previous trader, to realize your hard-earned bitcoin. 8. Following Momentum Open: 258.88 USD Direction: Buy Close: 297.15 USD Profit: 0.1 BTC / 107.53% http://i.imgur.com/novlaG8.png Let’s take a look at a trader that was also following momentum, but remained prudent enough to take their profits. This time we have a smaller trader with a 0.096 BTC deposit, but using 10x leverage allowed them to generate a hefty 0.1 BTC profit. Unlike the last trader, this person almost perfectly timed their position close. If you need to work on taking your profits, consider setting price targets that you will close at — this helps prevent trading on emotions. 7. Selling the News Open: 306.03 USD Direction: Sell Close: 232.42 USD Profit: 1.96 BTC / 263.93% http://i.imgur.com/FwmCtvj.png A trend that has been prevalent over the last 9 months with bitcoin trading is for the price to rally on major news, but then return to pre-news levels. This can be seen with PayPal’s bitcoin partnerships, Microsoft accepting bitcoin and now with Coinbase’s exchange. Identifying this trend helped our trader turn a 0.74 BTC deposit into a 1.96 BTC profit. While accurately calling the top may require a bit of luck, they did a great job of managing their open position for several days. As the price was retracing over several days, it made financial sense to keep their position open and incur interest charges on the funds BTC.sx provide for 10x leverage. A general rule of thumb is to consider closing unprofitable positions within 24 hours to avoid paying interest. However, the market was moving in their favor — more than compensating for the interest charge. The end result was making approximately 90% ROI for every day their position was open. 6. Missing the Boat Open: 280.12 USD Direction: Buy Close: 237.00 USD Profit: -0.96 BTC / -75.81% http://i.imgur.com/LrWfZXr.png Unfortunately, unprofitable trades from time to time. But these are actually valuable learning experiences. This is certainly the case for our trader that ‘missed the boat’ when both opening and closing their position. This trader was slightly slower than the earlier momentum traders and went long at 280.12 USD with 5x leverage. Their potential profit would have been higher had they entered a position sooner, but this was initially not too much of a problem when they quickly became profitable. However, they failed to realize their profit while they had the chance to do so. In fact, they only closed after the spike to cut their losses. Quite clearly, if they had entered the position sooner, their loss would have been much smaller. Or even better, if they did not miss the boat to close above ~283 USD, they would have made a profit. Now Let’s Look at the Lessons to be Learnt from the Valentine’s Day Traders 5. “Honey, can you please stop trading bitcoin for 10 minutes?” Open: 234.66 USD Direction: Buy Close: 258.37 USD Profit: 0.18 BTC / 76.47% http://i.imgur.com/rq2xuRM.png With 24/7 markets, bitcoin waits for no one. This trader was not going to let their Valentine’s Day plans get in the way of making a profit. Here we have a trader going long at 234.66 USD, with 10x leverage, then closing the position on Valentines Day evening to lock-in a 76.47% ROI. As covered above, this trade demonstrates the effectiveness of both following momentum and taking profits sooner rather than later. 4. The Sneaky Mid-Date Trade Open: 256.66 USD Direction: Sell Close: 236.50 USD Profit: 0.09 BTC / 71.04% http://i.imgur.com/NXiVQT7.png Being a trader it can be hard to stop price-watching sometimes. Here we have a BTC.sx user taking an opportunity to short bitcoin will the price rallied during Valentine’s Day evening. By entering a 0.13 BTC short position, at 10x leverage, they set themselves up to profit from a price fall. Our simple user interface also allows trades to be made on mobile devices for those moments when you cannot get to a computer. A great lesson to be learnt here is to not set stop losses too small. Initially the market moved against the trader. However, our trader had a large stop loss to allow the price to move higher, before heading down, where a 71.04% ROI was later generated. 3. The Dumper Open: 243.95 USD Direction: Sell Close: 234.24 USD Profit: 0.02 BTC / 34.54% http://i.imgur.com/NsRJTTO.png Following momentum also works when shorting bitcoin. Shown by this trader, a sell was made 10x leverage, helping drive the price lower and generate a profit. At BTC.sx, all positions are executed on exchange order books. Consequently, leveraged trades help move markets in your favor, with greater influence than just an unleveraged buy or sell. Following the dump to 227 USD, our trader failed to take his profits and the market crept back up over several days. On the 17th February, their profit even turned into a small loss. However, as the market fell lower the following day they were able to finally close their position in a profit. 2. The Coin Toss Open: 243.38 USD Direction: Buy Close: 234.19 USD Profit: -0.20 BTC / -32.72% http://i.imgur.com/6CHDwl1.png All trades should be based on research and technical analysis. Simply placing a trade, without a justified reason, reduces your chances of making a profit to the toss of a coin. This trader found out the hard way when the market moved against them with a 10x leveraged buy, resulting in a -32.72% ROI. In this scenario it was more likely that the price was going to head downwards for several reasons. For one, by looking at the above chart it is easy to see that there is price resistance around $244, indicating limited upside potential. Additionally, volume was declining at this point which means that a significant breakthrough is unlikely. Lastly, the MACD showed the upward movement was loosing momentum, indicative of a trend reversal. http://i.imgur.com/rMgIsVr.png 1. The Technician Open: 245.05 USD Direction: Sell Close: 235.53 USD Profit: 0.01 BTC / 33.68% http://i.imgur.com/3bbQxso.png Over at Bitstamp, one of our traders made a similar trade, but went short instead of long. By correctly identifying the price resistance, declining volume and declining momentum, they concluded a price drop was likely. Their analysis produced a well-deserved 33.68% ROI. This shows that, even in a seemingly flat market, there are opportunities to be found by trading one step ahead of the market to profit from when a price swing does come. And in bitcoin, that price swing is inevitable. Conclusion While it may seem obvious, the best traders on our platform always tend to have an objective and a clear reason for trading. This shows the more informed traders will always have that slight advantage over the rest of the market. Another common pitfall is not taking profits sooner. Although hindsight is 20/20, it is generally more profitable to close a position too soon, rather than too late. If you want to use the power of leverage / margin trading to increase your potential returns, check out BTC.sx. We offer up to 10x leverage on Bitfinex, Bitstamp and itBit.
CFTC Orders Bitcoin Options Trading Platform Operator and its CEO to Cease Illegally Offering Bitcoin Options and to Cease Operating a Facility for Trading or Processing of Swaps without Registering (September 17, 2015)
I want to share my 2017 crypto market experience for anyone who wants to read it, I was one of the greedy guys who knew nothing about trading and still made a potential ton, then lost it all due to, well... Being greedy and knowing nothing about trading.
This does not really bother me much, but I haven't been able to stop thinking about it either, what could have been, I will try to be as brief as posible: Back in 2011-2016 I was working as a software developer freelancer, back then I lived in Venezuela, and mostly used paypal to charge clients, paypal would constantly limit my account, but I would get it back after submitting documents and a bit of begging, this was the only way I could receive payments from international clients, and basically the single point of failure in the process of delivering my work and getting paid, if paypal permanently banned me I would be completely screwed. About 2015-2016 my paypal got limited permanently, no reason stated, I thought it was really unfair as I only received payments from business in countries like the US or Canada, no sketchy money entering my account, anyway, when this happened I became incredibly stressed and depressed, all I could think was I wouldn't be able to feed my family anymore, and what would I do if an emergency happened that same day or week or however long it took me to figure out how to receive payments again through another method, all I had was held in my paypal account, so I had nothing to defend myself in the meantime. Anyway, it took me about a week of constant reading to realize I could convince a few clients to buy crypto for me, I lost about 60% out of my stream of income due to clients ditching me as they didn't want the bother of purchasing crypto just to pay a freelancer they could replace for one that was easier to work with, I used localbitcoins to sell the bitcoins I got for national currency so that I could purchase what I needed, I was not really able to stock up on some bitcoin as an investment as I spent everything I earned due to sustaining my almost the entirety of my immediate family. Fast forward to 2016 or 2017, and I start to try out purchasing bits of crypto, and trying to time the market to make a little bit more, doing this somehow I managed to convert about $100, into $400-$500 in a matter of a few months. Then hits late 2017, around august I believe, when everyone was purchasing alts like crazy even if they were scams, most people were blinded by greed, me included, it was at that point that I decided to drop work for a few weeks to see if I could make some good profit out of the state of the market, and so I took those $400 or $500, and started to daily trade with it, making 20% sometimes, 30% or 50%, as well as sometimes losing everything I had done during the day, a few of the trades I remember doing was purchasing LTC, XRP, IOTA, BCH and a few more right before they 2x or 3x in price, I was doing swing trades with the entirety of my portfolio, because I realized I could earn more that way, so if I had 5k total in crypto, I would do the swing trade with the entirety of it, and either lose $1000 or make $1000 if it moved 20% in either direction, my only real strategy was to read up on most recent trading discussions on a few social media, which was no strategy at all, I was just being reckless, I remember I could only sleep 2 hours every night because I was afraid of losing everything while being asleep, I set a bunch of alerts, was stressed, didn't want to talk to relatives nor anyone because I would feel like dying when losing 10% or 20% out of my portfolio when it grew to a certain point. Anyway, at some point I got up to $20k, or $25k, then decided to put it all in XML because I had read some discussions on it, and realized people seemed to really like it, don't remember exactly what was my entry price, but when XLM almost got up to $0.70 - $1 a few days or weeks later, my portfolio was worth $130k, and it remained that way for a whole 24 hours or so, If I remember correctly My heart was racing, I thought for sure I was going to make it $1m at some point Then, of course, everything started to crash hard... just a few days later my portfolio was worth $80k, a few days more and I was at $60k, I started to panic like any regular silly greedy guy and tried to profit off some swings only to lose more than I would profit from, months of sleepless nights later, with a lot less hair in my head, I finally decided to take it all out, at which point I had about $12k worth of crypto. I used that money to get me, my wife and my mom out of the country, I was also lucky to have dual citizenship thanks to my mom having been born in another country, so I could move to a first world developed european country instead of another struggling country in south america, I was able to set up proper bank accounts so that I could find good clients and make it easier for them to pay me my dues and still use crypto for those that were willing, and of course, I took my work back as a freelancer, although by this point my previous clients had found other people to work with. In the end things turned great, I suppose, I would not have been able to save up those same $12k while working as a freelancer back in Venezuela, not even close, that whole experience got me out of that awful country and way of life, still, I can't stop thinking that if I at least had gotten out at $80k, or even $60k, I would have a down payment on a decent house, were, even 1/3 of the price of it, easily... instead, I blew through it while moving to the new country and paying a year worth of rent plus a couple of work laptops for both me and my wife. This part of my life will always be a crazy memory to keep, and share with future friends I may make, so I felt like sharing it here as I have been watching the sub for a while, though I just lurk.
PayPal vs Square: Which Fintech Stock Is A Better Buy?
The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating digitalization and has led to a spike in online transactions and e-commerce sales. According to PayPal, the penetration of e-commerce as a percentage of retail sales in the first half of 2020 outpaced prior external forecast by 3 to 5 years. Both consumers and merchants are increasingly adopting digital payments as contactless transactions have become increasingly important amid the current crisis. The rapid penetration of digital payments led to double-digital revenue growth in the second quarter for PayPal and Square. Using the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool, we will place these two fintech payment firms alongside each other to assess which stock offers a more compelling investment opportunity. PayPal Holdings (PYPL) PayPal, which was spun off from eBay in 2015, has emerged as the digital payment leader. In the second quarter, PayPal added 21.3 million net new active accounts, reflecting a 137% Y/Y rise and marking the strongest growth in the company’s history thanks to a surge in e-commerce and digital payments. As of the end of 2Q, PayPal had 346 million active accounts with over 26 million merchant accounts. The company’s 2Q revenue surged 22.2% Y/Y to $5.26 billion. And adjusted EPS rose 49% to $1.07 as the adjusted operating margin expanded 504 basis points to 28.2%. Total Payment Volume or TPV, which indicates payments processed through the PayPal platform, grew about 29% to $222 billion. Venmo, Paypal’s mobile payments platform, witnessed a 52% growth in its TPV to $37 billion. Following the strong 2Q momentum, PayPal reinstated its 2020 guidance and in fact, raised it. The company expects revenue growth of 20% and adjusted EPS growth of about 25%. It anticipates adding 70 million net new active accounts this year. To boost its top-line further and promote touchless payments, PayPal launched QR Code technology in 28 markets globally in May. CVS Pharmacy will be the first retail chain to offer its customers the option to use PayPal and Venmo QR codes at checkout in its US stores. The company will also launch Venmo credit card this year. PayPal has also expanded its Visa Direct partnership globally to accelerate real-time access to funds for small businesses, consumers and partners across its platform. This collaboration enables PayPal to extend global white label Visa Direct payout services through PayPal and its Braintree, Hyperwallet and iZettle platforms. On Sept. 22, Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev reiterated a Buy rating for PayPal with a price target of $285 as the Mizuho E-Commerce Tracker showed that unique views across key PayPal partner sites (like Etsy, Groupon and Wayfair) remained strong in July and August and also pointed to potential signs of life in the beleaguered travel category. The Tracker also indicated that PayPal’s unique views continued to grow ahead of partner websites in the last two months, reflecting persistent share gains for the checkout button. Overall, the analyst expects strong July and August e-commerce trends coupled with share gains to bode well for the company’s second-half TPV. (See PYPL stock analysis on TipRanks) PayPal stock has rallied about 74% year-to-date and could rise further by 17% in the coming months as indicated by the average analyst price target of $219.77. The stock scores a Strong Buy consensus based on 28 Buys, 5 Holds and no Sell ratings. Square (SQ) Payment facilitator Square is growing rapidly as consumers and businesses are migrating online at a faster pace amid the pandemic. From February through August 2020, there was a 13.2 percentage point increase in the share of Square sellers accepting online payments and by August, over 40% of all Square sellers were accepting online payments. Also, by August, more than 7 in 10 Square sellers were accepting contactless payments. The company’s Cash App ecosystem delivered $1.2 billion in revenue in the second quarter, reflecting a whopping 361% Y/Y growth. The Cash App had over 30 million monthly transacting active customers in June. Aside from the accelerated digital migration, Cash App also gained from the impact of Fed stimulus, unemployment checks and tax refunds. Second-quarter revenue grew about 64% Y/Y to $1.92 billion. But excluding bitcoin revenue, net revenue of $1.05 billion was flat Y/Y. Meanwhile, 2Q adjusted EPS declined 14.3% to $0.18. The strong growth in Cash App revenue was offset by the 17% decline in the company’s core higher-margin Seller business to $723 million. Square’s gross payment volume or GPV fell 15% Y/Y to $22.8 billion. The Seller segment was impacted by lower volumes as several businesses were forced to close amid the shelter-in-place orders triggered by the pandemic. However, the company stated that the Sellers business improved with each month in the quarter as restrictions eased and more sellers adapted to the contactless platform. Meanwhile, GPV from online channels grew over 50% and accounted for 25% of the Seller GPV reflecting the rapid adaption of online solutions by the sellers. (See SQ stock analysis on TipRanks) Recently, the company announced two new features called On-Demand Pay for employees and Instant Payments for employers. These new features will further integrate Square’s Seller and Cash App ecosystems to offer financial services and simplify payroll. Loop Capital analyst Kenneth Hill has just initiated coverage of Square with a Buy rating and a price target of $169. The analyst sees a great deal of upside ahead in the fintech company, driven by further investment in the business and monetization of the Cash App. Hill also believes that on the Seller side, the SMB network should "hold in well and continue a sustained recovery." The Street has a cautious Moderate Buy consensus for Square with 14 Buys, 12 Holds and 2 Sells. Square stock has risen a stellar 149% year-to-date, so the average analyst price target of $151.77 indicates a possible downside of 2.5% ahead. Bottom line Both PayPal and Square have strong growth prospects in the digital payments world. If we look at the Street’s consensus and further upside potential, PayPal stock appears to be a better choice than Square currently. To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paypal-vs-square-fintech-stock-102007024.html
It took most of 2015 for bitcoin prices to firmly establish a bottom and it appears we are in the early stages of an uptrend. Markets repeatedly rose and fell more than $100 USD in value, giving short term speculators plenty of opportunity to scalp profits from one another. It was a rocky year of ups and downs, raised hopes and dashed expectations for the long term buy-and-hold investor but the year seems to be ending with a satisfying overall rise in price. What Is In Store For 2016? 2016 prediction? We will surpass previous highs and Market Cap will reach 50 billion dollars. If Bitcoin price is based on the direct mathematics of market cap - it's important to keep the perspective of the size of btc market cap compared to other financial 'institutions' like small, medium and large market cap corporations. https://www.zapchain.com/a/l/2015-bitcoin-price-and-trading-a-year-in-reveiw/XQyjdAWICn
01-01 08:34 - 'Going through my trading journal and found this chart from January 25, 2015. Bitcoin was up 80% from $162. good times' (twitter.com) by /u/pesa_Africa removed from /r/Bitcoin within 2595-2600min
Lean Fire target based on past 12 months of spending: $550,000 Personal target is closer to $650,000 to $700,000 to allow for some extra spending once I quit work to do fun things. I estimate I'll work another one or two years. Happy to answer questions or have discussions about my experience or what my plans are. Thanks for reading.
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